Northeast U.S., Heavily Dependant on Heating Oil, Faces Severe Winter

Significantly Colder than Normal Temperatures Expected

AccuWeather.com's long-range forecasters warn that winter 2005-2006 will be an especially cold one for the northeastern U.S., a region that is heavily dependent on heating oil. An early start to the cold weather will create additional demand for oil, which has seen significantly higher prices this year.

AccuWeather forecasts that just about all of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River will average at least one degree below normal over the three-month winter period of December through February. The greatest departure from typical winter temperatures will occur in the Northeast from Maine to Washington, DC, with average temperatures of two to three degrees below normal in much of the region. Heating oil consumption is therefore likely to be well above normal.

An early start to winter will further pressure heating oil supplies. AccuWeather meteorologists forecast that temperatures will be consistently below normal beginning in November.

AccuWeather's long-range forecasters point to four major factors that would contribute to a colder-than-normal winter in the Northeast:

Unusually warm water off the Northeast Coast presages a cooler winter

A large area of warm water off the East Coast is expected to persist well into the fall, which favors the creation of a high pressure system over land and a low pressure system offshore. Winds that move from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure will therefore be traveling from the Northeast out to sea, helping to chill the region.

A very active hurricane season correlates with colder winters in the Northeast

The 2005 hurricane season (June 1 through November 30) has been especially active to this point. If the trend were to continue, it would suggest that the Northeast is in store for a severe winter, as there appears to be a correlation between active Atlantic hurricane seasons and very cold winters in the region. There were 21 Atlantic tropical cyclones (which include both tropical storms and hurricanes) in 1933, 18 in 1969, and 19 in 1995; all three years were marked by harsh winter weather. AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists are expecting 18 tropical cyclones this season.

Cold Canadian air will cool the Northeast

AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting that cold Canadian air will be displaced farther south than occurs in a typical winter, providing additional impetus for cooler temperatures in the Northeast U.S.

Pacific Ocean water temperatures won't help moderate Northeast winter weather

Abnormal water temperatures off the eastern Pacific coastline have a moderating effect on Northeast winters. This is true of both colder-than-normal waters (called La Niña) and warmer-than-normal waters (called El Niño). This year, water temperatures across the Pacific are expected to average close to normal, which will not help mitigate other factors that would contribute to a cold Northeast winter.

While the Northeast is expected to be contending with a severe winter, the middle of the country should experience typical winter temperature ranges. The western U.S. is forecast to have a warmer-than-typical winter, with eastern California, Nevada, Utah, and southern Idaho and Oregon projected to average three or four degrees above normal.

Severe weather has already contributed to higher energy prices this year. This summer has been unusually hot, creating increased demand for electricity generation to power air conditioners. In periods of high demand, electric utilities must bring oil-fired generators online. Additionally, the active hurricane season has wrought havoc on oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. The storms have shut down or damaged drilling platforms, which has affected production and reduced supplies.